(Motorsport-Total.com) – Has Mercedes practically already won the Formula 1 race in Japan (follow live in the ticker)? The statistics actually speak a clear language: The Silver Arrows once again occupy the front row of the grid, as they already did in Australia and China – back then, a dominant victory followed each time.
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In addition: Valtteri Bottas was the last driver in 2019 who did not win in Suzuka from pole position – and the only driver since 2006 (!), who was not on the front row of the grid for his victory. The last time before that was Fernando Alonso – but only because Michael Schumacher’s Ferrari engine had gone up in smoke back then.
Overtaking and, above all, following has hardly been possible in Suzuka so far; in addition, Mercedes had by far the best long runs, the race is traditionally a one-stopper, and the weather also promises no surprises. So is there anything at all speaking against a Mercedes victory?
Will Ferrari pull off another turbo start?
So far, Mercedes’ uncertainty has been called Ferrari: The Scuderia has made life quite difficult for the Silver Arrows in the early stages of the races so far. And once again, Charles Leclerc is lurking in row two, hoping to take the lead again with Ferrari’s turbo start.
“With a good start, we might be able to put them under pressure,” says Leclerc, “but I guess they will just drive away from us at some point, just like in the last two races. They simply have too big a pace advantage.”
However, the Monegasque is also of the opinion that Ferrari’s advantage at the start is becoming smaller and smaller as the season progresses. “But I hope we can keep it for as long as possible.”
Especially on a track like Suzuka, it would be important for him to make up positions, “and if we can gain two or three – all the better. I would take that immediately, and then hopefully we can keep the Mercedes behind us. But I doubt that will be possible.”
He believes: “As soon as they have a lap of clear air, it will be impossible for us to get back to them.”
Hamilton skeptical: Mercedes engine and chassis stronger
Team principal Frederic Vasseur is counting on the fact that Ferrari has always been better in the race than in qualifying so far. “Friday also went quite well, which means we can be confident,” says the Frenchman at Sky. “We’ll wait and see what the conditions will be like, and then we’ll see what we can achieve.”
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Lewis Hamilton, however, is more skeptical and is looking more towards the back at McLaren – although from his starting position, that is also more of a look forward. “They clearly have a good car, and as soon as they start getting more power out of that Mercedes engine, we will fall back,” believes the Briton, who will start from sixth on Sunday.
He already sees “really a hard piece of work ahead of us” to somehow close the gap to Mercedes. Because, according to him, they don’t just have advantages with the engine: “I think the chassis – at least this weekend – is not on par with Mercedes. They are also faster in the corners.”
At McLaren, too, the focus is more on Ferrari than on Mercedes: “I think Ferrari has shown that they have gained relative pace in the race. So I would be positively surprised if we were able to compete with Ferrari for podium finishes,” says team principal Andrea Stella.
“But it’s racing, anything can happen. We will of course try to attack the podium. But we know that we have to improve the car and, above all, bring upgrades. That’s the plan for the next race. And then we can fight for the podium more consistently and hopefully for the win later in the season.”
What stumbling blocks Mercedes has
So the battle seems to be more between Ferrari and McLaren than between Mercedes and any other competitor. Although Russell warns that the competition has moved closer, especially in qualifying, the ball is clearly in the Silver Arrows’ court – and especially with Antonelli.
Because while teammate Russell will be handicapped in the race by a set-up blunder by his team, the Italian can drive freely after his first victory in China. His main focus is likely to be on the start, which he has already failed to hit optimally several times this season – and if he falls behind, it could be difficult, he believes.
Because even if overtaking seems easier due to the new regulations – it won’t be as easy as in Australia and China, according to him. “Because first of all, the track is quite a bit narrower and you don’t have as many straights where you can overtake – or straights with hard braking zones where you can make a move.”
“You have many fast corner entries, so it won’t be easy. That’s why a good start is crucial, and then we’ll see what the pace will be like.”
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