What surprised us the most in the first three races

(Motorsport-Total.com) – Many experts had long expected Mercedes to have a good start to the 2026 Formula 1 season even before the first test drives in winter. However, the first three races of the new era in the premier class also brought us some surprises.

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After the first three races of the season, our editors draw an initial conclusion and reveal what has surprised them most in the 2026 Formula 1 year so far – both positively and, of course, negatively.

Ruben Zimmermann: Red Bull is now only mid-field

That Red Bull would not be at the very front at the start of the new regulation era should admittedly not surprise anyone. I myself had always pointed out before the new season that it would be more than unlikely to be right at the front immediately with the first own engine.

However, I did not expect to see the Bulls only in sixth place in the World Championship after the first three races. Of course, they would be further ahead if Isack Hadjar in Australia and Max Verstappen in China had not each retired with a defect.

The fact is, however, that Red Bull is currently closer to the midfield than to the top of Formula 1, regardless of the World Championship. In Japan, Verstappen was stuck behind Pierre Gasly in the Alpine until the end of the race, and earlier in China, the Dutchman was behind Oliver Bearman in the Haas when his RB22 gave up the ghost.

Yes, Red Bull was probably somewhat underrated in the first races of the year. Still, it is surprising that the Bulls’ current rivals appear to be the customer teams Alpine and Haas and not the factory teams Mercedes and Ferrari.

You cannot attribute this to the engine alone, as the Racing Bulls have only two points less in the championship with the same power unit. And recently in Japan, Arvid Lindblad even made it into Q3, while Verstappen was already out in Q2.

Red Bull itself also makes no secret that the biggest problems lie in the chassis area. Whether a possibly waning motivation of Verstappen, who cannot or does not want to come to terms with the new regulations, also plays a role remains to be seen.

Either way, it is not a big sensation that Red Bull currently cannot compete at the very front in Formula 1. However, the fact that the gap to the top at the start of the season is so huge was not foreseeable.

Norman Fischer: What about James Vowles’ announcements?

I actually thought that the toughest times were behind Williams – times when they missed deadlines and tests and trailed the entire field. But somehow it seems they have arrived there again.

So far, under team principal James Vowles, everything has actually pointed to the once traditional racing team reconnecting to the top. Carlos Sainz had convinced the smart Brit – and actually me as well.

Fifth place last year was, in my view, a positive surprise. Because Vowles repeatedly emphasized that the focus would be entirely on the new 2026 regulations – 2025 was just a side issue. Nevertheless, they managed to leave the strong midfield competition behind – even the second last had 70 points.

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Accordingly, I was also optimistic that the team could continue its positive trend, even though I definitely did not expect them to already challenge the top teams.

But for me, Williams is, alongside Aston Martin, the negative surprise of the year. Having to skip the shakedown week in Barcelona was already not a good sign – but a good indication for the start of the season.

With the overweight FW47, Alexander Albon and Carlos Sainz currently cannot win any prizes. The best qualifying position so far was 15th, and the points in China an absolute gift.

The drivers have to work magic if they want to get out of Q1. The only cars they have under control are newcomer Cadillac and the badly hit Aston Martin team. That does not fit at all with James Vowles’ self-image – and certainly not with his statements.

Sönke Brederlow: Alpine and Haas as the sharpest pursuers

After the first three races of the season, Alpine and Haas count among the positive surprises: Both teams are currently fighting for the role of “Best of the Rest,” directly behind Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren. This was not necessarily expected beforehand, even though a first trend had already emerged in the test drives.

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Admittedly, Alpine had written off the previous season early to focus fully on development for 2026. However, Williams and Aston Martin also pursued this approach – with significantly less convincing results. After a bumpy start in Australia, Alpine now appears stable and competitive, which is also reflected in Pierre Gasly’s statements.

The Frenchman even described the A526 as the “best car of his career so far” and has already formulated clear ambitions towards Ferrari for the rest of the season. The decisive factor now will be whether Alpine can really reduce the gap to the top to occasionally annoy the established top teams.

For Bearman, the weekend in Suzuka was difficult and ultimately ended in a serious accident. However, much suggests that this is a one-off setback, as the basic package of the Haas VF-26 is apparently also competitive. Accordingly, the question of which of the two drivers can assert themselves in this exciting midfield duel will be very interesting.

Furthermore, I consider it quite realistic that both Gasly and Bearman could come within striking distance of a podium this season in turbulent race events. I would even wish for it, as both teams have made visible progress over the winter break – and should be rewarded for it.

Stefan Ehlen: Nothing works at Aston Martin/Honda

Honestly, I am shocked at how poorly Aston Martin is doing. It is natural that not everything is done right immediately with a new technical regulation. But that not even the basics are right and they only just managed to complete the race distance for the first time at the third Grand Prix – that is harsh.

No question: I expected much more from Aston Martin. Anyone who, like Lawrence Stroll, approaches with the self-confidence of soon being world champion, owns the most modern factory facilities, and employs Adrian Newey, the best Formula 1 designer of the past three decades, must achieve more than 17th place in qualifying and the race.

From a de facto factory team, I also expect it to function as a unit. Because that is exactly the decisive strength of an exclusive powertrain deal: having a tailor-made solution.

But how can the Aston Martin Formula 1 team then fall so far behind powertrain manufacturer Honda that they only realize four months before the season starts that powertrain development has completely gotten out of control? Had they not talked to each other before? Or did one side simply ignore the other?

I see, first, a communication problem here and second, a complete failure in technical cooperation. And both sides contributed: Aston Martin, because it apparently did not care what Honda was doing. Honda, because it muddled along for too long. And Adrian Newey, because as technical director he did not see that something was wrong here.

The result is a historically weak performance in the first races of the season. When a team with over 30 years of Formula 1 history (Jordan is the ancestor of today’s Aston Martin) loses to Formula 1 newcomer Cadillac, who is doing all this for the first time, that speaks volumes – and says nothing good about the entire Aston Martin and Honda project.

Alexis Hoffmann: Where is the fans’ composure?

Formula 1 is a circus. Even in the 70s and 80s, discussions about the appearance and reality of Grand Prix racing took place here in Germany, at a time when Hans-Joachim Stuck could still speak of the “English mafia.”

Meanwhile, the focus in debates is on the essence of the sport, the challenge to the modern Formula 1 driver, defined by an absurdly designed rulebook. The drivers’ anger is understandable, the frustration on all sides obvious. And yet: The ability to get continuously upset for over a month about the artificial nature of the premier class of motorsport surprises me.

At the latest after the Japanese Grand Prix, I would have expected some relaxation. “The rules are crap, let’s make the best of it, done.” Instead, Formula 1 faces its biggest trial in years. Even the shining star of the Red Bulls publicly flirts with retirement.

And that, although all the individual parts of this story are nothing new. Artificial overtaking maneuvers? I recall DRS or KERS. Too much influence by car manufacturers? Max Mosley and Bernie Ecclestone could have talked for hours about that. A regulation that rewards bizarre driving styles? Traction controls, active suspensions, or tire wars have also caused strange scenes.

Ultimately, we all have the option to ignore the happenings around Formula 1 instead of spinning in circles with complaints about the carnival of Grand Prix racing. I am really surprised at how much endurance the critics of the concept show. And in the end, it remains 22 of the best drivers worldwide competing in the most demanding cars on countless circuits around the globe at 300 km/h.

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Let’s stay curious about how long the breath of the critical audience really is.