(Motorsport-Total.com) – It takes a bit of imagination to somehow write a dramatic tension arc into the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship. After 14 Grands Prix, Kimi Antonelli leads by 81 points over George Russell, 101 over Lewis Hamilton, and 106 over Lando Norris.
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The largest deficit ever overcome by a driver in absolute terms was the 46 points Max Verstappen was behind Charles Leclerc in 2022. However, that was after the third race of the season in Melbourne. In the end, Verstappen’s second world title was a clear matter, with 454 to 308 points.
Relatively speaking, James Hunt’s comeback in the 1976 season, which was filmed in the Hollywood blockbuster “Rush,” was even more impressive. His maximum deficit to Niki Lauda was “only” 35 points – but back then, a Grand Prix win was worth only nine points instead of today’s 25. If you convert Hunt’s deficit proportionally based on today’s points for a win, the 35 points back then would correspond to a deficit of around 97 points.
Probably only eight instead of nine Grands Prix
It is unclear how many race weekends will still be held this season. Due to the geopolitical situation, it is currently considered unlikely that Qatar (November 29) and Abu Dhabi (December 6) will take place. Much suggests that both dates will be canceled – and instead, a season finale in Imola will be held as a replacement.
In this case, Antonelli’s pursuers would still have eight race weekends to turn the title fight around – eight race weekends in which a driver can theoretically earn a maximum of 208 points (eight times 25 points plus another eight points at the F1 sprint in Singapore).
Sure, Verstappen only proved in the 2025 season that even an almost hopeless situation can become a real title fight with a winning streak. But if anyone currently has a winning streak, it is Antonelli – and it is considered very unlikely that one of his opponents will suddenly win everything to the ground.
“Kimi just has to keep doing what he is doing now. That’s fantastic,” Verstappen said after Antonelli’s repeated win at the Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid. “Things are really going well for him. He shouldn’t stress about the World Championship. But I think he isn’t. He just delivers, he is confident, and he is gaining more and more experience.”
“Kimi is still young. He is at the very beginning of his career, but he is literally flying. And it suits him perfectly. You shouldn’t complicate things unnecessarily. He doesn’t. And he has a few good people around him who know exactly what he needs. It all fits together,” Verstappen observed.
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Presumably, the four-time world champion means Antonelli’s father Marco, who accompanies him around the world, his team principal Toto Wolff, who tries to keep the pressure in the pot and not let it explode, and race engineer Peter Bonnington, who knows from his Hamilton days how to win titles and always radiates the calm that a Formula 1 youngster needs, even in confusing situations.
Form curve: Is Norris Antonelli’s toughest World Championship rival?
If there is currently an opponent who can put pressure on Antonelli, it is probably defending champion Lando Norris. The McLaren driver won before the summer break in Budapest, then also in Zandvoort, was fourth in Monza – and without VSC bad luck, he would have taken his third win in four Grands Prix on Sunday in Madrid.
But even if Norris were to score all theoretically possible 208 points (which in reality is quite unlikely), Antonelli would only need a series of fourth places (with a single Grand Prix podium) to maintain the lead across the finish line. This already shows that the calculations are more academic in nature.
In such a scenario, Antonelli would need exactly 103 points from now on to seal the deal. If you take his eight worst Grand Prix results of the 2026 season as a comparison basis, he still scored 116 points in those. You can twist and turn it as you like: “It is very likely that he will win the World Championship,” Norris admits.
The defending champion says: “He leads by more than 80 points because he is doing an incredible job. He beats a much more experienced teammate who is also pretty good. So I don’t want to give him any tips because he is doing it terrifyingly well anyway. And he just turned 20. Phenomenal. It’s cool to see someone so young doing such a good job.”
“He has been impressive since the first race of the season, makes very few mistakes,” Norris raves. “He doesn’t drive like it’s only his second year in Formula 1. And as I said: no tips from me – after all, we will be fighting against each other for many years to come. Hopefully also this year, but definitely in the future.”
Before that, on Sunday evening, Russell, Antonelli’s first pursuer in the 2026 driver standings, had practically said goodbye to the World Championship race: “I won’t say it’s over,” Russell said after his fifth place in the Spanish Grand Prix. “But it is extremely unlikely that I am still in this fight.”
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