(Motorsport-Total.com) – World Championship leader Andrea Kimi Antonelli ended Friday’s practice in Belgium with the best time. In 1:45.944 minutes, he beat the McLaren of Lando Norris (+0.190) and Red Bull driver Max Verstappen (+0.472). The Italian also set the standards in the long runs with high fuel loads towards the end of the session.
Read more Kimi Antonelli: Mercedes has «bigger difficulties than expected» in Belgium
When adjusting the long run data from the second free practice for different tire compounds and stint lengths, Antonelli was on average 0.21 seconds per lap faster than his closest pursuer Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari. However, the Monegasque was only able to complete a single long run lap due to the red flag after Pierre Gasly’s incident.
Therefore, the comparison with Antonelli’s Mercedes teammate George Russell and the two Red Bull drivers, who were able to complete their long run stints over several laps before the interruption, is more meaningful. Verstappen lost an average of 0.29 seconds per lap to the Mercedes, with Russell even almost half a second behind.
Where Mercedes takes time from Red Bull
Red Bull could well be the first challenger to the Silver Arrows at Spa-Francorchamps. Max Verstappen set the best time in the first free practice and benefits especially from the top speed advantage in sectors one and three. However, the Red Bull reveals another problem besides weaknesses in the twisty middle section of the track: tire wear.
In his eight-lap long run stint, Verstappen recorded an average tire degradation of 0.227 seconds per lap. Antonelli managed only 0.078 seconds per lap in the same period. While Red Bull can keep up with Mercedes’ pace at the start of a stint, it continuously loses ground as the distance increases.
Nevertheless, second place in the pecking order is by no means guaranteed for Red Bull. Lando Norris was about three tenths of a second faster than Verstappen in the second practice, and Ferrari should not yet be written off regarding race pace. This is especially supported by a long run from Lewis Hamilton in the first free practice.
Mega long run: Is Ferrari mixing it up at the front in race pace?
Unlike the long runs in the second practice, the race simulations in the first session were not interrupted by a red flag. Therefore, despite the usually higher significance of the second practice, a closer look at this data is worthwhile.
There, Lewis Hamilton drove the fastest long run laps on average and was 0.29 seconds per lap faster than Andrea Kimi Antonelli in the Mercedes. However, different team approaches could relativize this picture.
While some teams deliberately start their stints at a higher pace to analyze maximum tire wear and extrapolate for the race, others rely on a more tire-friendly driving style from the beginning, as is usual on Sunday in the Grand Prix.
A look at the wear values from the first practice (Antonelli: 0.070 seconds per lap; Hamilton: 0.182 seconds per lap) therefore allows two possible conclusions: either Antonelli did not drive his long run at the limit, or Mercedes has exceptionally good tire management and should have an advantage, especially in longer stints during the race.
Read more Spa Friday: Best time for Antonelli, fine for Ferrari
Either way, Mercedes with Andrea Kimi Antonelli currently presents itself as the clear favorite for the rest of the weekend – both over a fast lap and in race pace.
Does Aston Martin have to fear the 107 percent hurdle?
At the Belgian Grand Prix, only Ferrari and Aston Martin have not brought new parts to the track. While Ferrari is taking a development break after 30 updates so far this season, Aston Martin is fully focused on the extensive update package that is set to debut in Hungary in a week.
So far, the Silverstone team has introduced only six updates this season according to FIA documents and has therefore fallen significantly behind in the pecking order. In Belgium, they could actually be fighting for qualification for the race.
Fernando Alonso’s fastest lap in the second free practice was only a tenth of a second faster than Antonelli’s average long run time in the fully fueled Mercedes. In terms of weight, Aston Martin currently lacks about 100 kilograms of pace.
With a deficit of 5.187 seconds to the best time in the second practice, Aston Martin was calculated to be only 2.229 seconds within the 107 percent mark. Therefore, they must not afford a gap of more than seven seconds in qualifying. The announced update for Hungary can hardly come soon enough.
Midfield: Alpine ahead of Racing Bulls again?
In the midfield, the balance of power seems to have hardly changed initially. The leading group consists of Racing Bulls, Alpine, and Audi, followed by a second block of Haas and Williams at some distance. Cadillac and Aston Martin currently form the rear.
Alpine drove the fastest qualifying simulation of all midfield teams in the second free practice and was particularly convincing in the top speed sectors one and three. In the long runs of the first practice, however, Audi was ahead (+1.66) – ahead of Racing Bulls (+1.72) and Alpine (+2.06). No significant differences in tire wear were observed between the three teams.
Speaking of tires: they are likely to play a key role in Belgium as well. According to Pirelli motorsport chief Dario Marrafuschi, Spa-Francorchamps ranks “on the podium” in terms of tire load when comparing all tracks on the calendar. Nevertheless, there is currently little indication of a two-stop race.
Last year, teams completed more than 30 laps in a row on the medium C3 tire in some cases. According to Pirelli chief engineer Simone Berra, this apparently has not changed much: “A one-stop race on Sunday seems very likely.”
Read more Despite rant on the radio: Max Verstappen with a solid Friday in Spa