(Motorsport-Total.com) – Did the safety car following the heavy crash of Haas driver Oliver Bearman on lap 22 cost Oscar Piastri the victory in Japan? At that point, the McLaren driver was in the projected race lead and had already completed his mandatory pit stop.
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Mercedes driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli, however, benefited from the timing of the safety car and was able to carry out a comparatively cheap tire change, which allowed him to overtake Piastri through the stop. But how would the race have developed without the accident and without the safety car?
Could McLaren have taken the victory? Was Mercedes simply too fast? And if so: would Kimi Antonelli still have won, or his teammate George Russell, who was ahead of Antonelli on the track before the safety car and was therefore the leading Mercedes driver?
Data: Russell’s pace too poor for the win
The question about George Russell can be answered relatively clearly based on the data. The Briton most likely had no chance of winning – regardless of whether a safety car had been deployed or not. The reason: lack of pace.
After a weak start that dropped him to fourth place, Russell was able to quickly work his way back up to second position, but he found no way past Oscar Piastri. The latter finally pitted on lap 18 to preempt a possible undercut by Russell.
Subsequently, Russell had clear air and increased his pace by around 0,25 seconds per lap compared to his time in traffic behind the McLaren. Nevertheless, this pace was not sufficient, as his teammate Antonelli – also with clear air after overtaking maneuvers against Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris – set significantly stronger accents.
Wrong set-up slows Russell down
A comparison of lap times shortly before Russell’s pit stop, when both Mercedes drivers had clear air, clearly shows: Antonelli was on average 0,61 seconds per lap faster than his teammate in this phase (1:34,156 compared to 1:34,766).
Mercedes finally brought Russell into the pits on lap 21 to defend against a threatening undercut from Leclerc, who was traveling about half a second per lap faster at that time (1:34,275).
Even in the second stint, Russell failed to catch up decisively. According to team principal Toto Wolff, the reason lay in a suboptimal set-up that had already affected him in qualifying: “That definitely cost George performance today.”
This makes it clear: Russell lacked the necessary speed to win the race – in both the first and second stints. Without the safety car, he would not have been able to overtake Piastri either. Only an earlier safety car one lap sooner or a pit stop one lap later would have opened up a chance for victory for him.
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Antonelli: Victory even with the overcut strategy?
Andrea Kimi Antonelli presented himself as the faster Mercedes driver in Japan, which was initially masked by his weak start and the duels with Norris and Leclerc. However, at the latest in clear air before his pit stop, the potential in his pace became clear.
Without the safety car, Mercedes would most likely have opted for an overcut strategy to exert additional strategic pressure on Piastri. A look at Piastri’s lap times after his stop shows: with fresh tires, he averaged 1:34,392 – and was thus over two-tenths slower than Antonelli on old tires.
Before the safety car, Antonelli’s lead over Piastri was about 18 seconds, while a pit stop in Suzuka costs around 21,5 seconds. It is difficult to predict exactly how the times would have developed, but an aggressive overcut – possibly even with a switch to soft tires for the final phase – seems very likely.
Second stint shows: Mercedes clearly superior
In the second stint, Mercedes’ superiority became particularly clear. In clear air, Antonelli was on average about half a second per lap faster than the competition with comparable tire age.
If one also takes into account the possible tire delta through an overcut strategy, a total advantage of over nine-tenths per lap could theoretically have resulted. Tire wear on the hard tires was 0,037 seconds per lap, which, with an assumed overcut of ten laps, corresponds to a theoretical tire delta of about 0,37 seconds per lap.
Since Antonelli was already faster with older tires than Piastri with fresh ones, he would probably have found his way back onto the track directly behind the McLaren after a late stop. An Antonelli victory thus seems extremely likely even without a safety car.
Competition closer, but Mercedes remains the benchmark
The data shows once again: the battle for victory seemed closer than it actually was. Mercedes made the race exciting primarily through weak starts. If they succeed in maintaining the front row even after lap one in the future, the balance of power should quickly become clear.
Nevertheless, it can be noted that both McLaren and Ferrari in Japan moved closer to Mercedes than in Australia and China. Over the entire race, the gap averaged 0,29 seconds per lap for McLaren and 0,38 seconds for Ferrari.
Looking exclusively at the more representative second stint in clear air, McLaren (+0,53) and Ferrari (+0,55) were nevertheless closer to Mercedes than ever before. Previously, Ferrari’s gap was around six-tenths per lap (Australia: +0,64; China: +0,58), while McLaren was missing as much as 1,34 seconds per lap in Australia.
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