(Motorsport-Total.com) – Three races on three completely different types of tracks are enough to determine that Mercedes is the dominant force in Formula 1. The Silver Arrows are back at the top – and it will take a lot for their rivals to prevent them from winning both world championships.
Read more Cadillac needs «one second»: Will the Miami upgrade bring the newcomer closer?
As far as the drivers’ title is concerned, Russell was the favorite on paper before the season, and he underlined this status with a dominant victory in Melbourne.
In the next two rounds, however, he was beaten – in different ways – by his 19-year-old teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli. There are several factors why Russell lost the early championship lead, but the question is now justified: Does he remain the man to beat?
Our international panel of experts gives their assessment.
It won’t be a walk in the park
Federico Faturos, Motorsport.com Latin America
After a full pre-season in which George Russell was traded as the title favorite for 2026 in view of the expected Mercedes dominance, it would be hard to write him off after just three Grands Prix in which he took a win, a sprint win, and a second place… okay, Suzuka wasn’t exactly his best weekend.
Even taking into account that Russell didn’t have a “perfect” car, as Toto Wolff noted, Antonelli seemed to have the advantage throughout the weekend. The Italian had already hinted at this in practice when he was only 0,026 seconds behind in FP1 before beating Russell in the following two sessions. In other words: the signs were already there.
Nevertheless, that alone is not enough to enthrone Russell as the man to beat. Not yet. In Australia he was flawless, and in China he controlled the weekend from the start, leading the only practice session and dictating the action in the sprint until a gearbox problem ruined his Q3. Antonelli seized the opportunity and delivered flawlessly, as any top driver should.
Suzuka: The driver ratings from Marc Surer and the editorial team
However, the overall picture still speaks for Russell. This is his eighth season in Formula 1 compared to Antonelli’s second, and this experience will inevitably pay off over the course of a long campaign.
If anything, it was Antonelli who has shown weaknesses so far: a heavy crash in FP3 in Melbourne, a collision with Isack Hadjar in the Shanghai sprint, and a pattern of inconsistent starts. All of this is completely understandable for a 19-year-old with only 27 Grands Prix under his belt.
So yes, Russell remains the title favorite. But Antonelli has already made one thing clear: turning this status into a championship will be anything but a formality.
In Italy, the belief prevails …
Giacomo Rauli, Motorsport.com Italy
When something unexpected happens only once, we say: “One swallow does not make a summer.” And Kimi Antonelli’s victory in China initially felt exactly like that – like an isolated flash in the pan – only to be impressively confirmed two weeks later in Suzuka, one of Formula 1’s most demanding testing grounds.
After three races, the Italian leads the comparison of victories 2:1 against George Russell, and in Italy, the belief is growing that the Bologna-born driver could indeed outshine Russell’s star.
But in the paddock, it’s never wise to get carried away. It’s important to evaluate events carefully, interpret them clearly, and only then make a sound judgment.
Russell remains the leading contender for the world championship title. In two of the three races so far, he has been extremely unlucky – just think of the timing of the safety car and the battery problems that affected his race in Japan.
He is widely regarded as one of the three greatest talents on the current grid, alongside Verstappen and Leclerc, and he brings significantly more experience than Antonelli. Crucially, he also has greater political influence within the sport; he knows when and how to make himself heard.
In short: George Russell still has everything it takes to be considered the man to beat. But he now knows that it’s no longer enough to simply do his duty – he will have to be almost flawless at every opportunity.
Japan illustrates how a title can begin to slip away
Stuart Codling, Autosport
Realistically, only three Grand Prix weekends of a 22-round season are behind us. So it’s too early to say definitively which of the Mercedes drivers is the favorite for the title – if they are even the only contenders, because who knows what will happen if the rules are tweaked in the coming months?
But the lesson from the last two races, especially the most recent one, is how quickly small problems can add up to big ones. In Japan, George Russell struggled to find the optimal set-up to be as fast as Kimi Antonelli, and ultimately resorted to a set-up change in qualifying that made the car worse rather than better.
He then had to take this disadvantage into the race, where he would probably have been beaten by Antonelli even without the safety car.
Formula 1 Quiz
How many points did George Russell secure in his F1 career?
Test yourself now in the Formula 1 quiz and compare yourself with other users
In fact, the safety car prevented a “George, this is Toto” scenario, which would have been damaging on many levels.
At the beginning of last year, there was a feeling in the Motorsport.com team that this might be Lando Norris’ last clear chance at the title before Oscar Piastri matured into the full package. This picture then shifted when Piastri gained the upper hand over his teammate early on and stormed away to a seemingly unassailable lead … until the final third of the season.
We had similar feelings this year with Russell versus Antonelli. At the moment, it looks like it might already be too late for Russell – but as the late Murray Walker used to say: F1 is “if” spelled backwards (actually that would be “1F”, but you know what is meant).
Read more Wheatley to Aston Martin: Why Coulthard would strike now
Slept badly, but only briefly
Norman Fischer, Motorsport-Total.com
I already wrote it in my column on Monday: George Russell has to be careful that Kimi Antonelli doesn’t get into his head. And the longer he lies behind his young teammate in the championship – so at least until May – the more the thoughts start to circle.
Russell slept worst on the Monday after Suzuka, but I would still put my money on him. Because for me, everything still points to the trophy being in his living room at the end of the season. It can’t be any other way than that he continues to be the big favorite.
Yes, development will play a major role in 2026, so Mercedes’ lead might not be worth as much as in other years, but who will succeed best at this is of course impossible to foresee. So which other team besides Mercedes should therefore be the favorite?
And between the two Silver Arrow drivers, Russell remains the clear number 1 for me. This is shown by the team duel last year alone, which Russell won 21:3 in qualifying and races.
Yes, Antonelli has now won two races, but Russell should also know the circumstances under which these came about. In China, there were problems with his car in Q3, so his last lap was affected, and the list of hurdles in Japan is long: set-up, battery, safety car …
Without wanting to take anything away from Antonelli’s victories, Russell should be able to put them into perspective.
Too early for a judgment
Mike Mulder, Motorsport.com Netherlands
Although everyone is rightly talking about Andrea Kimi Antonelli and his title chances, George Russell undoubtedly remains firmly in the conversation for the title.
Two years ago, during the Grand Prix weekend in Belgium, I was having dinner with several Motorsport.com colleagues in a fine restaurant in the Ardennes when Antonelli entered with his father and quietly took a seat nearby. The boy cut a modest figure and looked shyly from under a Mercedes cap.
We couldn’t hear their conversation, but that hardly mattered. The questions that were going through my head at the time were much more compelling: How good is this 17-year-old boy really? What will his immediate future look like? And, perhaps most importantly, how will he cope with the extraordinary pressure that is already on him?
Fast forward a few weeks to August 30, 2024, when Antonelli made his Formula 1 debut in Monza – and in dramatic fashion. After just a few moments in FP1, he put his W15 into