(Motorsport-Total.com) – Formula 1 has bid farewell to a longer break after the Japanese Grand Prix – due to the cancellations of the Middle East races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. An ideal opportunity to take a closer look at the data and gain initial insights into the new regulations.
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So let’s take a detailed look at the current balance of power. First, the overview: The field of eleven teams and 22 drivers was within 3,63 seconds in qualifying and within 3,60 seconds per lap in race trim over the first three race weekends.
Compared to the previous year, this means a significant spread. In 2025, the entire field was still within 1,14 seconds in qualifying and 1,52 seconds per lap in the race. The gap between the fastest and slowest team has thus almost tripled over the winter – an expected effect given the new regulations and the newcomer Cadillac.
A look at history shows: Such large performance differences were last seen in 2017. At that time, backmarker Sauber was an average of 3,64 seconds behind leader Mercedes in qualifying.
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Currently, Mercedes clearly dominates the action. Over the first three race weekends, the average lead in qualifying was 0,56 seconds over Ferrari, and in the race even 0,53 seconds per lap. Ferrari is thus establishing itself as the primary challenger.
Behind them follows McLaren as the third force (Qualifying: +0,78 seconds, race pace: +0,82 seconds), followed by Red Bull (Qualifying: +0,97 seconds, race pace: +1,26 seconds). Red Bull’s gap is particularly striking – such a large gap to the top was last measured for the Bulls in 2015.
In the midfield, Alpine is currently ahead, closely followed by Haas. At the back of the field, Aston Martin and Cadillac are struggling with a significant gap.
Overall, the field can currently be divided into five performance groups: At the top is a clearly dominant Mercedes team. Behind them follow Ferrari and McLaren as the primary challengers. This is followed by a tight front midfield from Red Bull to Audi. Williams is currently in a kind of no-man’s-land, while Aston Martin and Cadillac bring up the rear.
Ferrari teams better in race trim
An interesting aspect arises when comparing qualifying and race pace: All teams with Ferrari power tend to show stronger performances in the race. With the exception of Ferrari and Cadillac, all teams are closer to Mercedes in qualifying than in race trim.
Ferrari itself can make up an average of around three hundredths per lap on Mercedes in the race. Cadillac also shows similar tendencies here. Haas also drops off less significantly than the rest of the midfield.
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Possible reasons for this are varied: strong starts that allow for clean air, or an engine that works particularly efficiently in race conditions but does not deliver maximum peak performance in qualifying.
Rapid development: Cadillac has already caught up by one second
The development over the course of the season is also exciting. While some teams already brought updates to Suzuka, the performance increase currently seems to be primarily determined by a better understanding of the new cars – especially the engine mapping.
Cadillac is particularly noteworthy here. The newcomer was still 4,12 seconds per lap behind Mercedes in Australia, but in Japan it was only 3,18 seconds – despite the longer track in Suzuka.
This means Cadillac has improved by almost a full second. However, all other teams were also able to reduce their gap. It should be noted, however, that Mercedes was often in traffic in Japan and could not fully show its actual pace.
At the top, McLaren in particular has made great progress. In Australia, the gap in race trim was still 1,34 seconds per lap, in Japan only 0,29 seconds. Even when looking in isolation at the more representative second stint, McLaren was significantly closer to Mercedes at 0,53 seconds than at the season opener.
2025 to 2026: Only Mercedes, Alpine and Ferrari with progress
The comparison with the previous year also provides interesting insights. The field has spread out significantly overall, which also means that only three teams were able to improve relative to the top. Above all Mercedes: in 2025, they were on average 0,55 seconds per lap behind leader McLaren, currently they clearly lead the field.
Ferrari was able to improve minimally by 0,01 seconds per lap. De facto, however, the gap to the top has remained almost identical – only the competition has fallen back, making Ferrari appear as the second force now.
Alpine was also able to improve and is an average of 0,07 seconds closer to the top in 2026 than in the previous year. A small step with a big impact: the team has worked its way up from the back of the field into the front midfield.
In contrast, there are significant setbacks for several teams. Aston Martin in particular has lost a lot: the gap to the top has grown by 2,29 seconds per lap. Williams (+1,46) and Red Bull (+0,95) are also among the biggest losers of the new regulations.
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