(Motorsport-Total.com) – That Max Verstappen extended his contract with Red Bull was always the most logical scenario in recent months. Even the rumors about McLaren fit into the overall picture. The new deal is not only good news financially for Verstappen and sportingly for Red Bull, but also for Formula 1 as a whole.
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Red Bull and Verstappen’s camp considered the last Formula 1 media day in Zandvoort the right moment to make an announcement that ends numerous speculations: The four-time world champion has committed to Red Bull until the end of 2030. And that was – despite some wild speculations – in truth the only logical outcome of the past months.
Yes, various websites and especially social media were at times buzzing with the thought of a possible move to McLaren, but mostly without much substance. The team from Woking admitted that informal talks took place but rightly added that such conversations are completely normal in the paddock.
Toto Wolff summed it up perfectly last year: As a team principal, it simply belongs to the job to explore where the future of a four-time world champion and probably the best driver on the grid lies. That is exactly what Mercedes did last year – even if it went a bit further then – and from McLaren’s perspective, it is just as logical.
Driver market for 2027 much tighter than expected
In reality, loyalty to Red Bull was always the most likely result for several reasons. First, the driver market looking towards 2027 is far less open than assumed. Originally, it was expected that the driver carousel would really get going around this time of year, but the reality looks different: The market at the top teams is completely closed.
It starts with Mercedes. Wolff has never made a secret since 2014 that he would like to work with Verstappen during his career, but the reality simply does not allow it at the moment. This is largely due to the rapid development of Kimi Antonelli – something that hardly anyone in the paddock thought possible a year ago.
Since Mercedes is already winning with the Italian youngster, Wolff does not even have to take the risk of signing Verstappen. Because yes: Looking at Verstappen’s record against teammates, it would be a risk.
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If Antonelli is Mercedes’ long-term project – and it has become clear more than once this year that this is indeed Wolff’s top priority – there is no need and possibly not even the desire to put a big champion alongside him.
Ferrari was also considered an option last year after Lewis Hamilton’s consistently painful season. Many expected the seven-time world champion might consider retirement from Formula 1 if he struggled similarly under the new regulations.
But here too, things turned out completely differently: Scuderia already has a long-term figurehead in Charles Leclerc, while Hamilton in his current form is going nowhere and has absolutely no reason to do so in 2027.
Adding to that, Aston Martin was a big disappointment and still has a very long way to go – a team that was still trusted last year to lure Verstappen – the picture becomes clear automatically. It also immediately explains why suddenly the one of the four leading racing teams appeared in the rumors that was considered the most unrealistic last year: McLaren.
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McLaren was the only remaining option, and so the situation benefited both sides. As mentioned, it made absolute sense for a team like McLaren to at least explore Verstappen’s future.
At the same time, McLaren was Verstappen’s only leverage against Red Bull given the situation in the driver market to negotiate an even better deal. Motorsport-Total.com already wrote during the Austrian Grand Prix that the McLaren rumors should primarily be seen in this light – and exactly that has been confirmed in recent months.
The final result is extremely logical: Verstappen was able to land a financially even more lucrative package, while Red Bull was keen on a new contract for two reasons.
First, Laurent Mekies’ team naturally wanted to bind Verstappen to them longer. Second, they wanted to get rid of the annual theater around the famous clause that stipulated for this year that Verstappen had to be among the top two in the championship standings during the summer break.
Although no details of the new contract are known (and thus nothing about the clauses, which are inevitably included in every Formula 1 contract), Red Bull was eager to structure things a bit differently to ideally avoid the same drama every season.
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However, Verstappen and Raymond Vermeulen are smart enough not to sign a deal without an escape route – such options undoubtedly still exist in the new contract.
It is known that Red Bull GmbH, especially the management level, repeatedly urged Verstappen before the summer break to publicly commit to the team – which at that time he simply had no reason to do.
This uncertainty is now finally resolved. Red Bull hopes to have done this in a more robust way to avoid a repeat of the story in the coming Formula 1 seasons. Whether that succeeds will only be seen in the next years.
Performance currently not good enough, freedom as an argument
Finally, it cannot be ignored that Verstappen would hardly find a significantly better overall package elsewhere. Yes, Mercedes would be a step forward in terms of performance – at least this year – but that path is currently blocked.
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Moreover, the Dutchman has built a team around him at Red Bull that does everything to create an environment where he can shine.
This was recently shown again in the succession planning for Gianpiero Lambiase. Verstappen hinted that he already had a successor in mind internally, who turned out to be his former performance engineer Tom Hart.
Red Bull then pulled out all the stops to fulfill this wish: Hart was actually already on his way to Williams to become race engineer for Alexander Albon, but after Verstappen expressed his preference, Red Bull went all in to reverse this move.
This news was already an indication that Verstappen would stay. Moreover, it illustrates how much Red Bull is built around Verstappen and how the team – also under Mekies’ leadership – does everything to provide him with a tailored environment.
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Certainly, it would have been fascinating for the neutral Formula 1 fan to see how he would start this process from scratch at another team, but the reality is: Verstappen already has all that at Red Bull and feels comfortable there.
In addition, this relationship goes beyond Formula 1. Red Bull grants Verstappen absolute freedom for his GT3 activities and the further development of his own racing team – something Red Bull insiders see as an important trump card.
Verstappen already made it clear last year that talks with other teams would not even make sense if he did not get the same freedoms elsewhere.
Although McLaren immediately signaled that they would not stand in the way of his racing activities outside Formula 1 either, the freedom at Red Bull is on a different level: For example, he is allowed to start endurance races on Mercedes equipment and has complete freedom in brand choice.
Taking all these things together, there is a true core in Verstappen’s often repeated statement that Red Bull feels like a second family to him – even if the quote sometimes sounds like PR.
Either way, it is true in the sense that Verstappen finds a tailor-made environment in every respect; something Red Bull consciously works towards to keep him long-term.
Performance as a big question mark
The only thing currently leaving something to be desired is performance – admittedly not an insignificant factor in Formula 1.
But even in this respect, Verstappen still sees potential medium and long term. On the chassis side, the start to 2026 was very weak, perhaps even disastrous, but since Melbourne, the gap in pure race speed has been reduced from 1.3 seconds per lap to two to three tenths in Hungary.
Admittedly: That was on a short track and still not good enough by Red Bull standards, but Verstappen remains confident that this difficult start can be overcome.
The same applies to the fact that Red Bull does not have an AUDO token. That is frustrating and a handicap, but at the same time confirmation that their own power unit is competitive – which was still a big question mark before this year started.
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The sporting picture is therefore not rosy at the moment, but that does not have to be an insurmountable problem in the long term – and that longer period is what this contract is about. Apart from pure lap time, Red Bull fits Verstappen like a glove. Adding that the rest of the driver market is completely closed, this was basically the only logical outcome of the past months.
After all, the duration of this contract is also good news for Formula 1 as a whole. How long Verstappen would stay in the pinnacle of motorsport was always a pressing question – not least because of the current regulations.
But if the FIA and F1 actually decide on a V8 for 2030 or 2031, this deal could bridge the difficult years under the current rules and an even more attractive engine formula might even move him to stay (much) longer.
And that would not only be good news for Verstappen himself – especially financially – and for Red Bull, but certainly for Formula 1 as a whole.
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