(Motorsport-Total.com) – Max Verstappen is still under contract with Red Bull until the end of 2028, but just like a year ago, his future remains one of the main topics of discussion in the Formula 1 paddock.
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At the beginning of this year, the key question was whether the Dutchman would remain in Formula 1 at all due to his dissatisfaction with the technical regulations. However, given the gradual adjustments towards a 60:40 split for 2028, this risk has largely been eliminated.
The logical follow-up question is which team Verstappen will race for in the coming years, and in this regard, the current situation feels like déjà vu. It bears a strong resemblance to last year.
Back then, Red Bull also had to prove to Verstappen that they could turn around a difficult situation, and at that time, just like now, Verstappen saw little need to speak publicly for a long time.
This remained the case throughout the entire race weekend of the Austrian Grand Prix. After the Daily Mail reported on informal talks with McLaren, Verstappen was naturally asked about his future and what he needs to see from Red Bull to stay.
“They know it, but I don’t have to talk too much about it,” said the four-time world champion after qualifying in Spielberg.
Could McLaren really be a plausible option for Verstappen?
Regarding the reports of “informal talks” between Verstappen and McLaren, the papaya-colored faces in the paddock do not deny that such conversations have taken place. Instead, they rightly point out that this kind of discussion is completely normal.
“Everyone talks to everyone,” is the response. And precisely because Verstappen continues to keep his future plans open to the public, it would be naive for competing teams not to have informal talks about his current status.
By the way, this is exactly what Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff said last year when repeatedly asked about his talks with Verstappen: “If there is a four-time world champion who has to decide what he will do in the future, then as a team boss it is your duty to see where the journey is going.”
McLaren CEO Zak Brown put it a bit more diplomatically last weekend but also did not immediately dismiss the rumors: “I would be very surprised if Lando or Oscar went elsewhere because they are very happy,” Brown told Sky Sports F1.
“Of course, we have contracts, but even aside from that – contracts aside – we are very happy with them and they are very happy here. If for some strange reason someone slips on a banana peel while getting out of the bathtub, then Max is of course a four-time world champion.”
While the current drama is in some ways a déjà vu, there are two major differences compared to last year. The first is that the Mercedes factory team is no longer at the center of the story.
Mercedes no longer an option?
In Spielberg, Wolff explained that Mercedes does not want to change its driver lineup for 2027, while George Russell once again emphasized that he will drive “100 percent” for the Silver Arrows next year.
Although Russell’s contract was announced as a multi-year deal, it is generally assumed in the paddock that it is a one-plus-one arrangement. Already during the April break, Russell stated that there are clear parameters and that on this basis he should drive for Mercedes next year.
This makes sense not only because of Russell’s own performances but also for another reason: given Verstappen’s record against his teammates, it would be risky to place the four-time world champion alongside Kimi Antonelli, especially since the young Italian is Mercedes’ long-term project.
Moreover, Mercedes with its current driver pairing is already capable of fighting for wins and championships.
To some extent, this is the risk Verstappen took by not changing teams before the 2026 season, although there are two reasons that explain this decision. First, Verstappen could not activate the exit clause in his contract during the 2025 summer break, although he repeatedly emphasized that he would have stayed anyway, regardless of any clauses.
This fits the political reality at the time. Red Bull had only parted ways with Christian Horner a few weeks earlier, after which Verstappen stated that he enjoys working with Laurent Mekies. In this political context, it would have been practically impossible to announce his departure just a few weeks later.
Remaining loyal to Red Bull – especially after the team’s significantly improved performance last year – was therefore the logical decision. But this also means that the driver market looks different a year later.
The contract durations of current Formula 1 drivers
Mercedes is currently winning even without Verstappen, while Ferrari also seems to have fixed its driver lineup. Charles Leclerc signed a new contract before the Monaco Grand Prix that binds him to the Scuderia into the 2030s.
There were more doubts about Lewis Hamilton after last year’s difficult season, but these have largely dissipated thanks to his improved performances this year.
In addition, Aston Martin – another team linked to Verstappen – has turned out to be the biggest loser under the new regulations. It is therefore only logical that McLaren is now named as one of the few remaining options.
This does not necessarily have to refer to 2027; 2028 could also prove to be just as interesting, as the driver market is expected to be more open then.
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One must not forget that the former Red Bull key figures Rob Marshall, Will Courtenay, and Gianpiero Lambiase either already work in Woking or, in Lambiase’s case, are supposed to join the team in 2028.
The two things Red Bull can do to keep Verstappen
The second aspect that differs from last year, aside from the driver market, is the situation in the championship. Despite the upward trend in Austria, Verstappen is still only seventh in the standings, while his average qualifying position this season so far is 7.4.
With only three race weekends left before the summer break, it is unlikely that Verstappen will climb into the top 2 or even top 3 in the standings. This makes it plausible that he could activate the exit clause this time – which is linked to his championship position in August – should he wish to do so.
Whether he actually wants to is, of course, the key question, and Raymond Vermeulen shed some light on this last weekend in an interview with the Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf.
Verstappen’s manager reiterated that the intention is to stay with Red Bull but added that Verstappen “was not born to race in the midfield.”
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His average starting position so far can probably be considered midfield, although Red Bull’s progress seems to be coming at just the right time. When Verstappen was jokingly asked by Servus TV after the Austrian Grand Prix whether second place still counts as midfield, the Dutchman laughed: “No, that’s really not midfield anymore.”
Primarily, this underlines that Red Bull needs to improve its performance. Verstappen simply wants a car with which he can fight for the world championship. If Red Bull can offer him that – not only now but also in the coming years – there is no reason to look elsewhere.
The upgrade packages introduced in Miami and Spielberg have largely made up for the huge deficit from the start of the season, which was accompanied by a weight reduction.
The deficit was reduced from one second per lap to at most a few tenths, although Verstappen made it clear after his second podium of the season that further progress is needed.
Moreover, the Red Bull Ring is a very short track where Verstappen has always been able to shine, which means a more representative picture will only emerge in Silverstone and Spa.
McLaren as leverage?
Besides the sporting aspect, there is also a commercial component. Could the talks with McLaren be used to increase pressure on Red Bull – both on and off the track, in other words, to negotiate an even better deal?
This line of thought has gained increasing importance in the paddock in recent weeks. It is plausible that the current situation will ultimately lead to Verstappen staying at Red Bull, but perhaps on even better terms.
Some sources in the paddock even suggest that a long-term involvement in the team for Verstappen is not excluded. That would be unprecedented for an active driver in the modern era but would fit the trend that other high-ranking personalities receive shares in teams – such as Adrian Newey after his move to Aston Martin.
Interestingly, Horner also long sought a similar arrangement for himself.
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Regardless of what the conditions might ultimately look like if Verstappen decides to stay – about which no one currently has a clear overview – this means the situation is playing out on two fronts. Verstappen must weigh what is best for him in the coming years both on and off the track.
Regarding the latter, finances are not the only consideration. Verstappen is very active outside Formula 1, and Red Bull gives him complete freedom in this regard. This applies not only to his GT3 activities but also to the choice of manufacturer in these programs as well as the implementation of his own motorsport and sim-racing projects.
McLaren has hinted that they would not necessarily be opposed to this, but Verstappen already finds an environment at Red Bull that is perfectly tailored to him. He said last year that it makes little sense to talk to other teams if they are not willing to give him the freedom to pursue his endurance racing ambitions alongside Formula 1.
As mentioned, McLaren does not deny the “informal talks,” but that does not automatically indicate anything serious yet. From both parties’ perspectives, it is simply logical to have these talks, while Verstappen has several reasons why the current situation could play in his favor.
A longer stay at Red Bull – potentially on even better terms – still seems plausible, although a clever game is being played in every conceivable scenario.
Verstappen had no reason to reveal his intentions publicly a few weeks ago, which makes the current situation completely logical: exploring the market and, if no better options arise, using his leverage in talks with Red Bull.
In the meantime, Red Bull has two tasks if it wants to maximize its chances of keeping him: continue the dialogue behind the scenes – as happened a few weeks ago at a meeting with the Red Bull top management in Austria, from which the much-discussed photos emerged – and above all, push forward the development of the RB22.
In this regard, an important step was taken in Spielberg, but one swallow does not make a summer. And one thing remains unchanged: Verstappen still has time on his side.
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