(Motorsport-Total.com) – Was Lewis Hamilton’s maiden victory in the Ferrari pure luck? Hardly. Although the seven-time Formula 1 world champion benefited late in the race from a virtual safety car phase (VSC), which gave him an extremely time-advantageous third pit stop. However, the data shows: Hamilton would most likely have won the Spanish Grand Prix of Barcelona-Catalunya even without Fernando Alonso’s retirement.
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But let’s start from the beginning – after all, Ferrari achieved an absolute strategic masterpiece in Barcelona. The original plan was probably to take the lead directly at the start. Thanks to Ferrari’s traditionally strong start and the soft tires, Hamilton had the best chances of entering Turn 1 as the leader, despite the dirtier second starting position.
Although this plan didn’t quite work out and Hamilton remained second, Ferrari reacted promptly: With an aggressive three-stop strategy, the Italians put massive pressure on the leading George Russell in the Mercedes – successfully.
How Ferrari outsmarted Mercedes
Despite his lead, Russell found himself in a strategic dilemma. On lap 27, the first four drivers were within only about five seconds. This meant almost every driver was at risk of being undercut by the driver behind them. The only exception: the tail-ender of the quartet, Lando Norris.
However, for the originally planned two-stop strategy, a tire change at this point – with almost 40 laps still to go – was far too early. Should Mercedes have pre-empted Ferrari, blocked Hamilton’s undercut, and gone for three stops themselves? Perhaps. But in that case, Ferrari would certainly have reacted, changed tactics, and opted for two stops.
So, at the end of lap 27, Hamilton gave the decisive signal, turned into the pit lane, and switched from hard tires to mediums. This sealed Ferrari’s three-stop route. Mercedes could no longer react due to the close gaps. Due to the enormous tire wear and the resulting tire delta, an undercut on the first lap was worth up to three seconds.
Had Mercedes brought Russell in just one lap later, Hamilton would already have been past. The Silver Arrows therefore had to stick to the two-stop strategy – the three-stop duel against Ferrari was lost. In addition, Lando Norris was lurking from behind, whom Mercedes also had to cover.
Just before VSC: Hamilton with sensational pace
As the race progressed, Hamilton literally flew towards the two Mercedes thanks to fresh tires and an aggressive push. In the first laps after his second stop, he gained 2.5 seconds per lap, and towards the end of the stint, it was still 1.5 seconds.
When Mercedes finally pitted for their scheduled second service, the tide should theoretically have turned. According to the data, tire wear across the entire field was 0.157 seconds per lap. After his stop on lap 36, George Russell should have been an estimated 1.5 seconds per lap faster than Hamilton on his now-used mediums.
In reality, however, Russell could only gain seven tenths of a second per lap on the Ferrari before the VSC, despite fresh tires. By now it was clear: Ferrari’s three-stop plan could fully pay off in the final.
Did the Russell-Antonelli duel cost Mercedes the victory?
When the virtual safety car was called out on lap 41, Ferrari seized the opportunity. Instead of the usual pit stop time loss of 23 seconds in Barcelona, one loses only about 13 seconds during a neutralization when changing tires. Since Hamilton was 16 seconds ahead of Russell at that point, the gifted stop was an absolute no-brainer for the Scuderia.
However, this scenario might not have happened at all if George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli hadn’t battled each other on track beforehand. “We probably lost five or six seconds due to the duel,” Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff concluded after the race on Sky.
The logic behind this: Without this time loss, Hamilton would have returned to the track behind the Mercedes even with the VSC advantage and would have had to overtake on track. However, a look at the data relativizes Wolff’s statement: The intra-team duel probably only cost Mercedes about two seconds of race time. And Hamilton returned to the track exactly two seconds ahead of Russell after his stop.
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Data: Hamilton unstoppable even without VSC
In the end, Hamilton had an easy time of it. He no longer had to battle a Mercedes on track and celebrated victory with a 20-second lead. But what about the realm of hypotheticals? Would the Ferrari driver have triumphed even without the virtual safety car?
It can never be said with absolute certainty, but practically all indicators point to it. Firstly, there’s the extremely strong pace at the end of the third stint, when Hamilton on the mediums lost only seven tenths of a second per lap to the Mercedes drivers.
It is quite possible that Hamilton would have extended this stint by another five laps. He would then have gone into his final fourth stint with a hypothetical deficit of about eleven seconds, but a tire delta of ten laps. Theoretically, this would have given him a pace advantage of 1.5 seconds per lap.
With 20 laps remaining, you don’t have to be a math genius to see that Hamilton would have easily caught the Mercedes drivers. However, he would then have had to fight his way past not only the Silver Arrows but also McLaren driver Lando Norris on track.
Ferrari confident: Hamilton would have overtaken for the win
Support for this theory comes directly from Ferrari’s top management. “We would have won the race, perhaps with a slightly smaller margin,” confirmed team principal Frédéric Vasseur after crossing the finish line. “We were in an excellent position at that point with a fresh set of tires. It would have looked good anyway.”
Even the “dirty air” argument – i.e., the time loss due to turbulence when following closely – hardly holds up in retrospect. Russell simply lacked any pace on the hard tires. This is also seen exactly the same way in the opposing camp.
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff put it soberly after the race: “Lewis was simply the fastest of us afterwards. Even if we had stayed ahead of him, it would have been incredibly difficult to keep him behind us.”
Only one condition could have posed a threat to Hamilton
Beyond all hypotheticals, the bare facts speak a clear language: During his last stint on hard tires, Hamilton was on average a full second per lap faster than Russell in the Mercedes – and that with a tire delta of just five laps.
In theory, this tire difference should only have amounted to about 0.75 seconds, especially since Russell was able to conserve his hard tires extremely well in the first laps under VSC conditions. The pure pace difference was therefore enormous.
If all race laps are adjusted for the different strategies, it becomes clear: Lewis Hamilton was by far the fastest man in the field in Barcelona. Strategy-adjusted, he drove almost two tenths of a second per lap faster than the Mercedes and even took six tenths off his teammate Charles Leclerc.
With this speed advantage, Hamilton would most likely have triumphed even without VSC. The Briton would probably only have been beatable under one single circumstance: If Mercedes had relied on Andrea Kimi Antonelli from the start and waved him past George Russell via team order.
The young Italian overtook Russell towards the end of the race on practically equally old tires, proving that he actually had the better pace. How fast he would have been in clear air remains unanswered. “I think Kimi could have won today,” Toto Wolff also admitted after the race. “But he simply didn’t have that opportunity today.”
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