(Motorsport-Total.com) – Nikola Tsolov is set to become the next Red Bull junior on the verge of making the jump to the top class. However, Liam Lawson is making the Racing Bulls’ driver choice for 2027 anything but easy.
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Tsolov’s Formula 2 career has taken off rapidly in recent months. After finishing runner-up in Formula 3 last year, Red Bull did not hesitate and promoted the Bulgarian directly to Formula 2 for the final race weekends of the season.
Taking this radical step while most of the competition already had a whole year – or even longer – of experience with the demanding Formula 2 cars was a mammoth task.
But Tsolov impressed immediately: in Qatar, he scored points in his debut feature race, and in Abu Dhabi, he surprised the paddock with his first podium in the sprint race.
Tsolov has carried this momentum seamlessly into the current season. With four wins so far, he currently ranks second in the championship. His recent triumph in the Spielberg feature race has brought him within just two points of championship leader Gabriele Mini.
Admittedly, this year’s Formula 2 field is certainly not among the strongest in recent years. Nevertheless, Tsolov’s steep form curve is more than impressive.
What the bosses at Red Bull value most – just as Helmut Marko has preached in the past – is a youngster’s ability to adapt lightning-fast to the next development step and even faster cars.
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While this learning process was somewhat slow in Formula 3, it is unmistakable in Formula 2. An excellent omen for the final jump to Formula 1.
Nevertheless, Franco Colapinto recently tempered expectations in an interview with Autosport, emphasizing that the move to Formula 1 is by far the toughest adjustment and no young talent can ever be fully prepared for it.
This especially concerns the immense pressure, countless media appointments, the spotlight, and all the obligations off the track. According to Colapinto, these factors weigh a hundred times more than in the junior categories. “In Formula 1, you actually spend only about ten percent of the time in the car,” he calculates.
Tsolov ahead of Formula 1 test, but Lawson exceeds expectations
The pure driving remains, of course, the foundation – and that is exactly what awaits Tsolov now. So far, he has not completed an official Formula 1 session. As part of a TPC program (Testing of Previous Cars), he must first cover at least 300 kilometers in an older Formula 1 car.
Racing Bulls CEO Peter Bayer has already revealed that these TPC tests are scheduled for autumn. Towards the end of the season, a run in the first free practice session is expected – most likely coupled with the rookie test in Abu Dhabi, provided the season finale takes place there.
If Tsolov maintains his current course, there will be hardly any way around him for 2027. This sparked ongoing rumors in the paddock months ago. Racing Bulls vehemently denied these speculations at the time – and Bayer reaffirmed this stance again this week.
“He is doing a fantastic job and is a huge talent that we are, of course, watching closely. But we have only had seven races so far, and Liam and Arvid are doing an equally great job. So, at the moment, it is not an issue at all,” Bayer clarifies.
Normally, Tsolov’s promotion would be a no-brainer – especially considering the traditional Red Bull philosophy of rapidly promoting homegrown talents. But this time, there is a big ‘but’ named Liam Lawson, who is also exceeding all expectations this season.
The New Zealander has experienced a mental rollercoaster after being recalled from Red Bull back to Racing Bulls immediately after last year’s Chinese Grand Prix.
Although he publicly emphasized that this setback did not throw him off track – “because I simply lacked the time at Red Bull to really prove myself” – it took a while for him to find his usual rhythm again at the sister team.
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This year, however, the “Kiwi” is in top form. Lawson has scored points in six of the eight Grands Prix so far. This is all the more remarkable as the four top teams in Formula 1 generally share most of the top-10 places among themselves.
This balance of power usually leaves only two positions for the “Best of the Rest” – although, to be fair, Red Bull started the season unusually bumpy. Lawson was, in any case, in the thick of the fight for these remaining points every weekend.
June particularly underlined his strong form: Lawson secured a strong sixth place in the Monaco barrier jungle, followed by eighth in Barcelona and ninth in Austria – and that on two completely different track characteristics.
He is delivering exactly what Racing Bulls and Red Bull demand from him. Especially since team management emphasizes how much Formula 1 rookie Arvid Lindblad benefits from Lawson’s experience.
Will the “Red Bull philosophy” decide in the end?
All this makes the decision facing Racing Bulls and ultimately the Red Bull leadership for 2027 extremely tricky. It touches on the fundamental question of what role the Faenza-based team should play in the future.
If Racing Bulls continues to see itself primarily as a development team for Red Bull, promoting Tsolov would be the only logical step. Lawson has already had his trial in the top team and currently has no prospect of a quick return there.
In short: If developing young talents remains Racing Bulls’ main purpose, everything speaks for trusting the 19-year-old Bulgarian as soon as possible.
At the same time, this scenario would be a brutal blow for Lawson. Realistically, the management can hardly expect more from him than what he is showing this season. Moreover, one must not forget that Lawson himself is only 24 years old – so there is still plenty of room for improvement.
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It is a classic luxury problem, exacerbated by another factor: if Tsolov wins the Formula 2 title this year, regulations prohibit him from competing in the series next year.
A compromise would be to let him mature behind the scenes as a test driver for a full year in 2027 to gently prepare him for Formula 1. However, recent history shows that this waiting loop can backfire for both the team and the driver.
Felipe Drugovich, for example, is still waiting in vain for his Formula 1 chance despite his dominant Formula 2 title. For Leonardo Fornaroli, one can only hope he does not suffer the same fate – Haas would be well advised to sign him for the coming year.
On the other hand, Alpine also sidelined Oscar Piastri after his Formula 2 title – only to lose the super talent to McLaren the following year. But that is a whole different story.
The only trump card for Red Bull at the moment is time. Neither Tsolov nor Lawson show signs of thoughts about leaving. The decision-makers can therefore sit back and carefully analyze how the duel develops over the rest of the season.
Logically, this also includes evaluating Tsolov’s lap times in a real Formula 1 car – both during the upcoming TPC tests and during free practice sessions.
This is certainly not about conjuring up the next Max Verstappen – a talent of that caliber has not emerged from the junior program since. Nevertheless, the situation presents Red Bull with a real luxury problem.
Measured against Red Bull’s traditionally bold and aggressive philosophy, promoting Tsolov remains the most likely option. But Liam Lawson is currently doing everything in his power to make this decision as difficult as possible for the bosses – and at least to delay it as much as possible.
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