(Motorsport-Total.com) – What had been looming for some time was officially confirmed during the race weekend in Shanghai: Due to the ongoing unrest in the Middle East, the races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have been canceled.
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Logically, this has financial and logistical consequences for the Formula 1 teams, especially since part of the freight and equipment is still in Bahrain after the winter tests there. But beyond the logistical consequences, the cancellation also affects several sporting aspects.
More time, but also more costs?
First of all, the changed calendar affects the upgrade plans of several teams. This is basically always the case when the race calendar is adjusted, but this year more so than usual.
Under the new regulations, this season is becoming an intensive development race in which teams must carefully plan their updates. Two factors make the situation particularly complex and explain why teams are pursuing different strategies.
Some already had new parts in the pipeline for the early flyaway races, while others wanted to wait for the first race weekends to get a clearer picture – especially because the biggest progress is currently being made in understanding the power unit and optimizing energy management.
“I think we probably haven’t talked that much about the car yet because we’re focusing so much on getting the maximum out of the power unit,” said McLaren driver Oscar Piastri in China, for example.
In addition to the strong focus on the power unit, teams must also plan their upgrades carefully because of the budget cap. Alpine Sporting Director Steve Nielsen explains that the transport costs for new parts have become an important factor.
“It’s the whole package,” says Nielsen. “Even the question of how expensive it is to ship the parts, because that all falls under the budget cap. Five years ago, people didn’t pay attention to that, but these boxes we stumble over in the paddock in the morning cost money, and a lot of it.”
“All of that counts towards your expenses. You burn through your budget quickly if you neglect such things,” he emphasizes. This means that teams have to find a balance between achieving performance gains on the track as quickly as possible and keeping the costs for new parts as low as possible.
“It’s a trade-off. If it brings 20 points of downforce, of course you fly it in. If it’s just small things, then you don’t,” Nielsen explains. The cancellation of Bahrain is particularly relevant in this context.
Because due to its location in the Middle East, the race was an attractive time for several teams to introduce updates after three distant flyaway races. In addition, data from Bahrain is already available from the winter tests.
This comparative data could have helped to evaluate the effect of new parts without having to rely entirely on simulations. This possibility has now been eliminated.
The updates planned for the Middle East must be postponed to one of the following races on the American continent, i.e., Miami or Montreal. A small advantage, however, is that the teams have more time behind the scenes as a result, and according to several team principals, this additional time is quite welcome under the new regulations.
When can Honda bring additional updates?
A second factor concerns the safety net in the technical regulations for this year, more specifically for the internal combustion engine. The Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) system gives manufacturers who are lagging behind the chance to develop their internal combustion engine more extensively than the competition.
Originally, it was planned to measure the pure performance of the internal combustion engine every six races. Manufacturers that are between two and four percent behind the strongest engine in the field receive an additional upgrade opportunity from the FIA. Those who are more than four percent behind get two additional updates.
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Honda seems to fall into the latter category, which Adrian Newey already hinted at when he said that the Japanese manufacturer needs to make a big step in engine performance. However, the cancellation of two races raises the question of exactly when these opportunities will take effect.
The slowest teams at the Formula 1 winter tests
Theoretically, the FIA has several options, with discussions still ongoing behind the scenes. If the six-race cycle is strictly maintained, the first upgrade opportunity would shift from Miami (originally the sixth race of the season) to Monaco.
However, there are also considerations to keep the first timing around the first US race of the season. In response to an inquiry from Motorsport-Total.com, the FIA explained that various solutions are currently being examined.
One possibility would be to divide the new 22-race calendar as evenly as possible into four sections – possibly based on calendar dates instead of individual races. A second option would be to maintain the six-race cycle and simply shorten the first section.
In this context, the FIA wants to discuss the proposals with all parties involved. The break between China and Japan therefore presents itself as a suitable time to also make this final decision.
Compression ratio: Fewer races before the new test
The third factor concerns a topic that has dominated preparations for the 2026 season: the compression ratio. The issue became political when competitors of Mercedes learned that the team was able to comply with the 16:1 limit in static tests at ambient temperature, but achieved a higher ratio during operation.
In the end, the FIA found a compromise by introducing an additional compression ratio test at an engine temperature of 130 degrees Celsius starting June 1st. A classic Formula 1 compromise: Mercedes’ competitors were able to gain something, as August 1st was originally planned and the introduction was brought forward.
The fact that the proposal was accepted unanimously shows, however, that Mercedes could also live with it – especially because the cold test was retained in addition to the new hot test.
Due to the cancellation of the races in the Middle East, there will now be only five race weekends before this rule change instead of the original seven, including Australia and China. This means that Mercedes has fewer opportunities to potentially benefit from the higher compression ratio than initially expected.
However, the overall picture is more complex than is often presented. It is frequently assumed that Mercedes achieves a ratio of 18:1 on the track, but in fact, the value is significantly lower. The time gain per lap is therefore also much smaller than claimed in some reports.
Based on the first races, the strength of the manufacturer with the star is much more multi-layered: efficiency in energy delivery, the chassis, and aerodynamics also play a decisive role. In the paddock, it is even suspected that Mercedes might not have to re-homologate the engine at all.
Should this picture be confirmed in the coming months, it would mean that no major hardware changes are necessary – very much in the spirit of Wolff’s statement that the whole issue is merely a “storm in a teacup.”
The balance of power might therefore not change dramatically, even if Mercedes – like all other teams – now effectively has two race weekends less before the new compression ratio test takes effect than originally planned.
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